the_trav ([info]the_trav) wrote,
@ 2009-04-22 12:20:00
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So now I'm something of a finance nerd
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/great-australian-scream-20090421-ae0e.html?page=-1

A few people have been sending me this article. It's got some points but overall I think it's misleading and wrong.

Here's the most offensive misleading quote:
"Anything that puts additional cash in the hands of buyers … results merely in more expensive houses."

Now that's almost a true statement, but it doesn't apply to FHOG in the way you'd assume.
Using numbers that aren't real, say a property is worth 100k. Both I and an investor have 100k, but the investor has been buying houses before.
Gov't comes along and gives all First Home Owners 20k. This causes the property to rise in price to 120k (maybe more maybe less, the exact rise doesn't matter).
I am now better off, I have 20k more to spend on this property than the investor and it is therefore more affordable to me than it is to the investor.


The second thing is the way they say rent money is not dead money, again, it's true but misleading.
If all you can afford is the minimum repayment on your loan, then you are loaning too much.

If you can afford to pay 1/2 again or double your loan repayments, even for the next 5 years, you're going to cut more than half the duration of the loan and pay less than a quater of the interest.
I can appreciate that this is difficult for people with children and other expenses, but at the end of the day it comes down to people over-extending themselves, wanting to have it all now and not making wise decisions.


The last issue I have with the article is that it tries to give you the impression that you can't make houses more affordable for people without houses without making house prices drop, and that's not strictly true, all you have to do is keep pumping more money into FHOG's and similar schemes.



(108 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]archenland
2009-04-22 02:49 am UTC (link)
As i said on gtalk, you situation is not the norm as you are both working, don't plan on having kids and between you earn double the average household income (which was estimated at $50kpa sometime last year) and you are only going to improve once the economy warms back up. So an increase in low end housing prices doesn't present much of a problem for you.

But for others, instead of paying off a $300k loan for a basic house John Smith the trucky with Mum and Bub at home is paying off $400k (using the $120k-$20k example you did). They are only able to meet the minimum repayment on this low end house. In this case they'd be idiots to buy, but they will because the government and Australia's must own a home meme is telling them to.

And i think the money could be spent more wisely focusing on building up the inner cities where transport infrastructure is strong, rather than getting John Smith his Mc Mansion in Caroline Springs.

Weeeee opinions galore :P

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 02:59 am UTC (link)
Truckies actually have a fairly decent income, they just have a shit job, but that's not the point you're trying to make.

John Smith the "trucky" should NOT try to buy in Melbourne

John Smith should look at:
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=o&id=105156050&f=0&p=10&t=res&ty=&fmt=&header=&cc=&c=60293050&s=vic&snf=rbs&tm=1240368813

And he should hold off on buying until he's got at least 20k saved, preferably closer to 50k.

You're right in that they shouldn't buy and they probably will because the gov't pushes them in to it, but even if you do chose to buy, there are still far better options than making minimum payments on a 400k loan.

Taking it even further than that though, maybe JS should have took a step back and realized that HAVING KIDS COSTS MONEY. If you chose to do something incredibly expensive, then you're going to have less money to spend on a house.

If I took up collecting sports cars, I don't think I would be getting the house that I got today, if I had kids or planned on them in the next 5 years, then I'd still probably be trying to move way out and buy way cheaper than we did.

Once again, it's not the government's fault, it's people making bad decisions

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)


[info]nsanity_au
2009-04-22 03:09 am UTC (link)
You don't feel that the Howard government did anything to encourage the dramatic inflation (FAR beyond that of CPI) of House prices?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 03:30 am UTC

[info]archenland
2009-04-22 03:10 am UTC (link)
It IS the Government's fault as their policies are about encouraging people to get into the property market when they shouldn't be. But the reasoning behind the policies is fairly sound, by propping up the property market we avoid hurting our banks like the rest of the world did. If Australia property prices followed the rest of the world we'd end u with massive numbers of default and the banking system would freeze up locally more than it has.

I think is a case of what is good for Australia isn't the same as what is good for the individual. The stimulus payments are the same, people should be saving them for the hard times coming, but they won't and it will stimulate the economy (we aren't but we already have savings!).

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 03:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 03:56 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:01 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:36 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:39 am UTC

[info]nsanity_au
2009-04-22 03:08 am UTC (link)
Situation is irrelevant.

FHOG is not for FHO's. Its for Home Owners looking to sell a house that fits under the $500k ball park.

Investors have tax breaks and other financial reasons why they don't need a FHOG.

All the FHOG did - if anything - was inflate the price of houses < $500k. Ultimately this puts $7-14k in the hands of the person selling the house (and the services required to sell a house that quote based on a percentage of the sale).

The problem is bleedingly obvious - we are rapidly heading towards a europe style life where renting will be the norm because house prices just kept appreciating out of reach for the average household.

I mean seriously - 7x the annual income for purchasers (as opposed to 3-4x when our parents bought)? What the fuck. If anyone's parents drives it into them saying "oh we had it just as hard" tell them to fuck off, because they are flat out wrong.

Loans have been easier to get in recent times, however this is tightening up due to the increased default (surprise surprise) rate. This is the only difference however.

Also a lot of old tricks that were available to the previous generation (gifting deposits, not having to prove savings, etc) that have been further regulated or closed altogether.

The solution is quite simple - however its political suicide for anyone to implement. We (the average potential home buyer) are fucked, but just wait for your children - they are proper fucked unless they are born with a silver spoon.

There is an article in the paper about some Environmentalist jerks demanding we implement a One Child policy in Australia to save the earth. If things keep going the way they are, and people have to be Dual Income, No Kids to achieve the goal/dream of home ownership - I don't think you'll need that policy. It will just happen naturally.

*disclaimer - none of this has any bearing on your current situation (nor my potential one I'm trying to get going), its merely commentary.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)


[info]archenland
2009-04-22 03:23 am UTC (link)
Wow i agree with Geoff . . . surely that is a sign of the apocalypse! Quick find something to disagree about!

What is wrong with a lower % of home ownership? I for one am of two minds on when if at all to buy a home. It was the norm before the 50s not to own before some government types got together and decided increasing it was a great way of fighting communism (i shit you not, can't find the bloody reference though :/ ) among other things. Australia has the highest rate of ownership in the world and certainly there are lots of very wealthy European countries with a lot lower rates than us, are they better or worse off than us do you think.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 03:27 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 03:40 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 03:44 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 03:52 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:13 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:20 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 03:40 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:33 am UTC

[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 03:25 am UTC (link)
Investors have tax breaks yes, so they start off above home owners.

The two outcomes FHOG can have an impact there is with and without, with we are slightly better off than investors, without, we are slightly worse off than investors.

I don't care if the money that the gov't gives me goes to someone who bought a house before me, that's not a problem.

Parents had things hard for different reasons, in general though, housing was far kinder to them than to us. Largely I believe that's got more to do with the growth of the population rather than the gov't interference

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 03:42 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 03:45 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 03:55 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]ojtinkerbell, 2009-04-22 04:10 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:25 am UTC

[info]wazza
2009-04-22 03:34 am UTC (link)
I thought Australia had the highest cost of housing, like 7.5 times the average wage where europe is 4-6 I read, albeit this was 2-3 years ago, not sure if world economy has changed this?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 03:41 am UTC

[info]shaggadelica
2009-04-22 04:07 am UTC (link)
/me still waiting for the bubble to burst... a recession and increased unemployment might do it.

The crux of this article reflects beliefs I've held since looking into buying.

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 04:09 am UTC (link)
You reckon the gov't should just let the prices plummet?

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:14 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:28 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:32 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:39 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:45 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:47 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:48 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:29 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:30 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:33 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:39 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:41 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:42 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:45 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:50 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:54 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:55 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 05:08 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:18 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 05:25 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:27 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 05:31 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 05:17 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 04:48 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 04:50 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 04:56 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:05 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 05:34 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]shaggadelica, 2009-04-22 04:49 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:01 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]shaggadelica, 2009-04-22 05:10 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 05:20 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:25 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]shaggadelica, 2009-04-22 05:38 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:23 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]shaggadelica, 2009-04-22 05:36 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:38 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 05:45 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 05:50 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:57 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 05:59 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:04 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 06:10 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:16 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 06:20 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:21 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 05:59 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:00 am UTC

[info]archenland
2009-04-22 04:51 am UTC (link)
Gah need to work!

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]nsanity_au
2009-04-22 04:56 am UTC (link)
lies.

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]shaggadelica
2009-04-22 05:40 am UTC (link)
In other news, LJ's handling of threaded comments is CRAP! :)

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 05:41 am UTC (link)
yeah, I'd have extreme difficulty following this conversation if gmail didn't organize it all for me :P

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 05:53 am UTC

[info]dominitus
2009-04-22 06:11 am UTC (link)
Paid users have an 'expand' button that expands the contracted comment thread with one click. So the way it handles comments for paid users is excellent. Everyone else has to suffer. :)

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:19 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]lucas_el_diablo, 2009-04-22 09:14 am UTC

[info]zenandtheart
2009-04-22 06:15 am UTC (link)
80 comments! On FINANCE. This would never happen in my lj!

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 06:16 am UTC (link)
It's not a competition :P We're taking bets on how long it'll take Anth to get in and have his 4 or 5 :)

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 06:20 am UTC

[info]archenland
2009-04-22 06:58 am UTC (link)
The comments are the article are interesting:
http://blogs.theage.com.au/yoursay/archives/2009/04/taking_it_for_g.html

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]archenland
2009-04-22 07:00 am UTC (link)
Wow dyslexic much :P

(Reply to this) (Parent)


[info]swirly_pie
2009-04-22 07:22 am UTC (link)
Holy shit, 91 comments! (Now 92)

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]archenland
2009-04-22 07:51 am UTC (link)
93!

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-22 07:51 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]swirly_pie, 2009-04-22 08:20 am UTC

[info]anfalicious
2009-04-22 08:50 am UTC (link)
Not a lot else to say that hasn't been said already...

Firstly Trav, your analogy is wrong. It's not you + 1 investor going to buy a house, it's almost guaranteed to be you + 1 other FHO. There's an immediate false inflation in the house price.

The second thing, the FHOG is nowhere near as much to blame as is negative gearing. In your hypothetical, yeah, you as the FHO have an extra 14K to kick in to the price, but the person buying effectively has a loan where the government pays the interest for them. I personally think it's the largest driver behind the increase in social inequality over the last 20 years in Australia.

Negative gearing makes it so that the single smartest way to invest your money is in property. This causes more people to go in to the property market to become land lords, effectively pushing prices up, and keeping people out of buying their own home because prices have gone up. This means you need more rental properties. Who provides these? Those with enough capital to get their government subsidised (negatively geared) investor loan. The result? Those with capital get more, those without rent for their whole lives.

There's another side effect of this. It's dragging capital out of other types of investing. Capital works and venture capital are two things that spring to mind here. So negative gearing also means there's less money around for PPP's (public/private partnerships, they build roads n stuff) and for the person who a good idea who needs money to start a business.

The FHOG is a response to this. It was the governments answer to the "uh oh, us/our kids will never be able to buy a house". It does help the FHO a little, but it also pushes prices up, so it has a negative effect eventually. I heard a dude on the radio the other night saying that it's pushed up house prices more than the grant is worth (Radio National, Australia Talks, erm, Monday I think).

The problem is negative gearing. It's immoral and is destroying the country. The only problem is, there's now too many people wrapped up in it for it ever to be undone.


Next, will there be a price crash? I doubt it. We're in a vastly different situation than the US. In the US there is three million homes sitting empty. Speak to anyone who has been looking at houses recently; there's no oversupply in this market (there possibly is in some rural areas though, and I've heard some outer suburbs where lots of FHO over extended themselves bought may be hit). In short, I wouldn't be sitting around waiting for house prices to drop, my guess is they've done all the dropping they're going to do (or will do over the next 12 months).


Renting vs. Buying? Yeah, I can't knock down walls in my rental house, and rent money is "dead money", but so is interest. And if my wall falls down on its own accord, I'm not the one forking out the dosh to fix it. Oh, and I don't have to pay land rates, which varies from area to area, but in this house it'd be around two months rent. I'd rather be paying my rent and using that extra money for my super; still the best and most reliable way of putting something towards a nest egg. It has the added bonus of being non-liquid, so you won't do something stupid like loan against it to do reno's, buy boats or go on holidays.

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]archenland
2009-04-22 10:34 am UTC (link)
I like how your "not a lot else to say" is a few hundred words :P

And yes it has pushed up housing prices a lot more because that is 14k knocked of the primary of the loan which gives the access to more credit . . . at least i think that is how it works :P

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]anfalicious, 2009-04-22 10:43 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-22 10:49 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]anfalicious, 2009-04-23 12:32 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]the_trav, 2009-04-23 09:10 pm UTC
(no subject) - [info]nsanity_au, 2009-04-22 12:32 pm UTC

[info]the_trav
2009-04-22 10:51 am UTC (link)
I don't think my analogy is wrong.
If there's me and three other FHO's then ok sure the price goes up and none of us are better off, but if there's even one person in there that doesn't get the FHOG then we're all better off than that person.

In reality it doesn't quite work out as nice because there's investors and all sorts of other crap going on, but the solution isn't to cut the FHOG, it's to cut something else

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]anfalicious, 2009-04-23 12:40 pm UTC

[info]nsanity_au
2009-04-22 12:31 pm UTC (link)
<3 Anth.

Negative Gearing is fucking evil. Its such a capitalist and liberal idea that could be provided by socialism :/

I disagree slightly on the house pricing thing - you can see the beginnings of a downturn every now and then, which is promptly countered by a quick rate drop or "bonus" to the FHOG.

Whilst the drop might not happen in the 12 months - now that they've gone and stimulated us and bonused the FHOG - but it will happen, the trends are there (check the house price index over the last 30 years, we've been on this giant upswing since 1992-1993) and history will repeat itself, as it always does.

We're definitely not going to see the kind of correction the US saw - agreed (and probably for the same reasons), but 15-22% is on the cards, sooner or later. Close to CBD locations certainly wont see it, as these will be dominated by international investors - but suburbia, where it counts, will get it.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

(no subject) - [info]archenland, 2009-04-23 12:58 am UTC
(no subject) - [info]anfalicious, 2009-04-23 12:43 pm UTC

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